(no subject)

[geekchick]

Dr. Jeff Masters on Gustav:

NHC is forecasting that Gustav's current diameter of tropical storm force (about 320 miles across) will grow to about 350 miles across at landfall in Louisiana. This is about 80% as wide as the 440 mile-wide region of tropical storm force winds Hurricane Katrina had at landfall (5 am August 29, 2005).

A wind field of this size in a Category 4 hurricane traveling NW over the Gulf of Mexico is capable of carrying a 13-15 foot high storm tide to the coast in central Louisiana. NNW-moving storms bring the highest surge to this region of coast. Storm tide is the storm surge, adjusted upwards by 2 feet in case the storm hits at high tide.

Time to leave New Orleans
It should go without saying that it's time to leave New Orleans. But, I'll say it anyway: It's Time to Leave New Orleans! The risk of staying in New Orleans is unacceptable. This is a huge and dangerous storm that has already killed a lot of people. The projected track and strength of Gustav is very close to that of Hurricane Betsy of 1965, the Category 3 hurricane that overwhelmed New Orleans' levees, and killed 76 people. Get out now.

Comments

[argh-jim.livejournal.com]

I was actually there for Betsy (technically... I was -6 months old).

[laurel]

The predictions are dire.

Though earlier I heard the storm was 900 miles across or going to be. Which . . . OMG. Smaller would be better. Going elsewhere better too.

[rdhdsnippet.livejournal.com]

I could be wrong, but I think that the stronger the hurricane the tighter it tends to be.

[argh-jim.livejournal.com]

No, with hurricanes, they just get bigger. But the 900 mi figure is way off, too. Katrina was about half that. (The 900 mi number came from New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who may be a well-known figure, but he's no meteorologist).

[rdhdsnippet.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I guess you're right - I was mostly thinking more of the center of the storm I guess. I kind of don't usually worry about the outer third or so because while they're annoying, they're more tropical storm speed winds and so not really dangerous in the same way, other than the tornado spawn-offs.

Nagin's got his heart in the right place, protecting his people, but when you overstate things, particularly storms down there, it tends to undermine future, correct information. For every three people who are sensible enough to run, there's another one who thinks that since they lived through the last one, they'll make it through this too, and besides, it's not half as bad as they said it was...

*sigh*

[argh-jim.livejournal.com]

My FIL is in Lake Charles, and he said that he's hoping it hits here, because he's never been in one and wants to take pictures.

*sigh*

[rdhdsnippet.livejournal.com]

My brother is in Slidell and is being similarly stupid stubborn. My comfort and good thoughts to you and your family, too.

[penguinet.livejournal.com]

I saw the eye of Andrew and although it was something I'll always remember, I wouldn't do it again. I remember my whole family huddled in the house and suddenly everything was silent. We went outside to look and it was a wall of grey. The air was so heavy and uncomfortable and everything was so still. I hope our families are OK.

[geekchick]

I hope your family (and rdhdsnippet's, and argh_jim's) is okay.

[firinel.livejournal.com]

A friend in the area says their weather stations are reporting it as Cat 5.

Until people understand the underlying class issues, and focus on "stupid enough to not get out" sort of mentalities, there will always be fatalities. It frustrates, and saddens, me.

[geekchick]

I don't think it's ever been a Cat 5, at least not to date; it hit Cat Cat 4 over Cuba, but dropped back down to a 3.

This time around it at least appears the city's much better prepared to address people who can't afford to evacuate on their own, with free transportation provided to regional shelters.

[penguinet.livejournal.com]

I'm upset because my son is down there and I have to wait a week to get him back. My dad said they closed down all of the airports today. So, even if I were going to try to get out there, I couldn't. My dad said he's already checked their house and it's as safe as it can be and they're pretty far inland. I just remember the last one. We were inland and still had no food or gas or ways to get things like that for a long time. I remember eating MRE's for months and hope to never again have to eat them...even if it is from the A-Menu. I really don't want my son to live off of MRE's for as long as I did.